Since last Tuesday, I've had a version of the same question from investors and agents: "So what happens now?" Here's my honest answer. Some things could change. Most won't change overnight. And the deals that make sense today still come down to the numbers.

What actually changed

Democrats won control of both the House and the Senate in the November 3 midterms. As of this writing they hold at least 54 Senate seats, with races in Alaska and Mississippi still being counted, and well over the 218 seats needed in the House. The new Congress is sworn in on January 3, 2027. President Trump still holds the White House and the agencies.

That means divided government. Democrats will set committee agendas, run oversight hearings and control spending bills. But any new law still needs the President's signature, and most bills still need 60 votes in the Senate. One industry adviser put it well: expect "more hearings, tougher confirmations and a more contested implementation calendar," not "an overnight rewrite of the rules."

So here's what I'm watching, and what I'd do about each.

1. Rates: Washington isn't the main lever

The average 30-year fixed rate is still above 7%. That's not because of the election. It's because of inflation and the Fed. The Fed raised rates in September for the first time since 2023, held in October, and markets are now betting on another hike at its December 8–9 meeting.

Congress doesn't set mortgage rates. It can nudge them through deficits and how the bond market feels about Washington, but that's slow and indirect.

What to do now: Don't wait on Congress to fix your rate. If you're under contract or close to it, talk to your lender about lock timing before the December Fed meeting. If the payment only works at a lower rate, structure the deal so it works today, then refinance later if rates allow.

2. Fannie Mae and Freddie Mac: probably slower, with more strings

Treasury Secretary Bessent has said a change to Fannie and Freddie's ownership could come over the next year or two, but that keeping mortgage spreads tight comes first. With Democrats running Congress, analysts expect more scrutiny and possibly more conditions on any plan to release them from government control. Some worry a rushed overhaul could push mortgage rates up.

What to do now: Nothing dramatic. Conventional loans are working the same way they did last week. Just know that "GSE reform" headlines will keep coming, and they're about 2027–2028, not your closing next month.

3. December 11: shutdown and flood insurance (this one matters in Florida)

Government funding and the National Flood Insurance Program both run out at 11:59 p.m. on December 11 unless Congress extends them. If the NFIP lapses, FEMA says it would stop selling and renewing policies. Existing policies stay in force and claims still get paid. But if a buyer needs a new flood policy to close on a home in a flood zone, the deal can stall. Private flood coverage can fill some of that gap.

Congress has extended the NFIP short-term dozens of times since 2017. It's usually tied to the funding bill, so I expect it to come down to the wire again.

What to do now: If you have a flood-zone closing in December, get the flood policy bound well before the 11th, and have a private flood quote as a backup. Agents, flag this early with your buyers.

4. Taxes: lots of talk, high bar to pass

The incoming tax committee chairs say they'll focus on affordability, enforcement, and raising taxes on billionaires and corporations. Capital gains could come up for very high earners. But tax law changes still need 60 Senate votes or reconciliation, plus the President's signature.

What's actually law today:

1031 exchanges are fully intact. The one notable bill to restrict them has been sitting in committee since 2025.
100% bonus depreciation was made permanent in 2025 for qualifying property, which makes cost segregation worth a look.
New Opportunity Zone maps take effect January 1, 2027, for 10 years.

What to do now: Keep planning around current law and talk to your CPA. If you're thinking about a 1031 or an Opportunity Zone deal, line up the financing early so your timelines don't slip.

5. Housing policy already on the books

The ROAD to Housing Act became law in July. Starting January 7, 2027, it limits additional single-family home purchases by investors who control 350 or more homes. If you own three rentals, or thirty, it doesn't apply to you, and you may see less competition from the biggest buyers. Industry groups are also pushing ideas like lower FHA mortgage insurance premiums and lower closing costs, and talking about a "ROAD to Housing 2.0." The nomination of a new CFPB director could also face a tougher Senate.

What to do now: Small and mid-size investors, keep buying on fundamentals. Agents, the 350-home rule is a good talking point with investor clients who've been outbid by funds.

What I'm telling clients

Washington just got more divided, and divided usually means slower. The rules you're financing under today are mostly the rules you'll be financing under next year. What's really driving your deal is rates, insurance and cash flow, and none of those wait for Congress.

That's where we come in. At OCF Capital we do traditional bank-style financing, and when a bank can't or won't move, we have private, DSCR, bridge and non-QM options. When policy is uncertain, having more than one way to close is worth a lot.

If you're weighing a purchase, a refinance or a 1031 and want to talk through how any of this hits your numbers, email me at nicholas@ocfllc.com.