Trump's Potential Firing of Powell and Its Impact on Mortgage Rates
Introduction
President Donald Trump has repeatedly expressed frustration with Federal Reserve Chair Jerome Powell, particularly over the pace of interest rate cuts. Trump’s push for lower rates, potentially as low as 1-2%, and his threats to fire Powell, have sparked significant debate about the Federal Reserve’s independence and the broader economic implications. This blog post explores the potential consequences of Trump firing Powell, the feasibility of reducing interest rates to 2%, and the resulting effects on the mortgage business.
Can Trump Fire Jerome Powell?
The Federal Reserve operates as an independent entity, designed to make monetary policy decisions free from political interference. Federal Reserve governors, including the chair, can only be removed “for cause,” such as misconduct, not policy disagreements, as established by legal precedent like Humphrey's Executor vs. United States (1935). Powell has stated he would not resign if asked and maintains that his removal without cause would be illegal.
Despite Trump’s threats, including calling Powell a “major loser” and suggesting his “termination cannot come fast enough,” legal experts argue that firing Powell over policy differences would face significant legal challenges. However, Trump’s recent actions, such as removing members of other independent agencies like the Federal Trade Commission, have raised concerns about potential attempts to test these legal boundaries.
Market reactions to these threats have been volatile. For instance, when Trump escalated his criticism of Powell in April 2025, the S&P 500, Dow Jones, and Nasdaq dropped over 2%, reflecting investor fears about undermining Fed independence. Trump later softened his stance, stating he had “no intention” of firing Powell, which calmed markets temporarily. Nonetheless, the possibility of Powell’s replacement—potentially with someone more aligned with Trump’s low-rate agenda, like former Fed Governor Kevin Warsh—remains a point of speculation.
Reducing Interest Rates to 2%
Trump has advocated for slashing the federal funds rate to 1-2%, arguing it would stimulate the economy and lower borrowing costs. Currently, the federal funds rate stands at 4.25-4.5%, the highest since 2007. Achieving a 2% rate would require aggressive cuts, which could be complicated by economic conditions, particularly Trump’s tariff policies, which Powell has warned could fuel inflation and slow growth.
The Fed’s reluctance to cut rates stems from its dual mandate: maintaining price stability (targeting 2% inflation) and maximum employment. Inflation, while down from a 9.1% peak in June 2022, remains above the 2% target, with the Consumer Price Index at 2.4% in March 2025. Powell has emphasized a cautious approach, waiting for clarity on the economic impact of tariffs before adjusting rates.
If Trump were to replace Powell with a chair willing to implement rapid rate cuts, it could undermine the Fed’s credibility, potentially leading to higher inflation expectations and market instability. Economists like David Rosenberg argue that Powell’s focus on preserving Fed independence makes such cuts unlikely, as he aims to avoid appearing politically influenced. Moreover, a forced rate cut could disrupt the bond market, pushing up 10-year Treasury yields, which directly influence mortgage rates.
Impact on the Mortgage Business
Lowering the federal funds rate to 2% could, in theory, reduce borrowing costs, including mortgage rates, which are currently around 6.7%. However, mortgage rates are influenced by multiple factors beyond the federal funds rate, including the 10-year Treasury yield, inflation expectations, and market dynamics. Despite Fed rate cuts in 2024, mortgage rates did not decline significantly, highlighting their limited direct correlation.
Potential Benefits
Increased Affordability: Lower mortgage rates could make homeownership more accessible, particularly for first-time buyers, who dropped to a historic low of 24% in 2024. Reduced rates could stimulate demand, potentially increasing home sales and benefiting mortgage lenders and real estate agents.
Refinancing Boom: A drop to 3% mortgage rates, as speculated in some X posts, could trigger a wave of refinancing, boosting revenue for mortgage companies.
Economic Stimulus: Cheaper borrowing costs could encourage consumer spending and investment, indirectly supporting the housing market by improving economic confidence.
Potential Risks
Inflationary Pressure: Aggressive rate cuts could exacerbate inflation, particularly if Trump’s tariffs increase consumer prices. Higher inflation would push up 10-year Treasury yields, potentially offsetting any mortgage rate reductions.
Market Volatility: Undermining Fed independence could lead to a bond market sell-off, increasing yields and mortgage rates. For example, a Richmond Fed economist noted that the spread between 10-year Treasury yields and mortgage rates widens during economic stress, potentially raising borrowing costs.
Housing Supply Constraints: High interest rates have created a “lock-in” effect, where homeowners with low-rate mortgages are reluctant to sell, exacerbating the housing supply crisis. Even with lower rates, this effect may persist if homeowners anticipate future rate volatility or higher home prices.
Conclusion
Trump’s potential firing of Jerome Powell and push for a 2% federal funds rate could have profound implications for the mortgage business, but the outcomes are far from straightforward. Legal barriers make Powell’s removal unlikely, and aggressive rate cuts risk fueling inflation and market instability, potentially driving mortgage rates higher rather than lower. While lower rates could boost affordability and refinancing, the mortgage industry must navigate uncertainties from tariffs, inflation, and Fed independence concerns. For now, stakeholders in the mortgage business should prepare for volatility and monitor the Fed’s response to Trump’s policies closely.