Palm Beach Market Analysis: February Edition

The Palm Beach County housing market continues to show resilience and positive momentum as we progress through early 2026. According to the latest data from BeachesMLS (covering Broward, Palm Beaches, and St. Lucie Realtors®), February brought notable year-over-year gains in sales volume, steady price appreciation in single-family homes, and a tightening inventory that points to a competitive environment, especially for single-family properties. Here's a clear breakdown of the key trends for both single-family homes and condos.

Single-Family Homes: Strong Demand and Price Growth

The single-family segment performed particularly well in February 2026 compared to the same month in 2025:

• Closed Sales: 1,089 (up 7.9% from 1,009)

• Cash Purchases: 512 (up 13.8% from 450): Highlighting the continued strength of cash buyers in the market

• Median Sale Price: $675,000 (up 4.3% from $647,000): Reflecting solid appreciation without signs of overheating

• Original List Price Received: 94.4% (slight improvement from 93.9%)

• Median Days to Contract: 53 days (up 6.0% from 50 days), indicating homes are still moving relatively quickly

• Active Inventory: 5,749 listings (down 8.6% from 6,292)

• Months Supply of Inventory: 4.9 months (down 14.0% from 5.7 months): This level suggests a seller-leaning to balanced market for single-family homes, with less supply putting upward pressure on prices

Overall, single-family homes saw higher transaction volume, more all-cash deals, and reduced inventory, creating a tighter and more favorable environment for sellers.

Townhouses and Condos: Increased Activity with Slight Price Softness

The condo and townhouse market showed even stronger sales growth, though median prices dipped modestly:

• Closed Sales: 758 (up 10.7% from 685)

• Cash Purchases: 502 (up 12.6% from 446)

• Median Sale Price: $315,000 (down 0.6% from $317,000)

• Original List Price Received: 91.8% (minor uptick from 91.7%)

• Median Days to Contract: 69 days (up 4.5% from 66 days)

• Active Inventory: 7,323 listings (down 11.4% from 8,267)

• Months Supply of Inventory: 8.9 months (down 11.0% from 10.0 months)

While prices softened slightly (possibly due to more options for buyers in this segment), the notable increase in closed sales and cash transactions, combined with declining inventory, indicates improving buyer interest and momentum heading into spring.

What This Means for Buyers and Sellers

Palm Beach County's market remains healthy and dynamic. Single-family homes are in especially short supply, which supports continued price growth and faster sales for well-priced properties. Condos and townhouses offer relatively more inventory (still trending downward), giving buyers a bit more negotiating room in that category.

Cash buyers continue to play a major role representing nearly half of single-family transactions and a similar share in condos, which underscores the appeal of the area for investors and relocators seeking stability.

As we approach the traditionally busier spring season, expect competition to heat up further, particularly for single-family homes. If you're considering buying or selling in Palm Beach County (including areas like my hometown of West Palm Beach), now is a great time to consult local data and a trusted realtor to navigate these trends.

Data source: BeachesMLS: Broward, Palm Beaches & St. Lucie Realtors® (February 2026 report). Markets can shift quickly, so stay informed with the latest reports.

Powell Is Not Our Friend.

The Federal Reserve announced on March 18, 2026, that it would keep its benchmark federal funds rate steady in the target range of 3.5% to 3.75%. This marks the second consecutive meeting where the Fed has paused on rate changes, following cuts late last year that brought rates down from higher levels.

The decision came amid a mix of factors: solid economic growth, a moderating labor market, inflation that remains somewhat elevated above the 2% target, and heightened uncertainty from geopolitical events like the ongoing conflict in the Middle East, which has contributed to oil price volatility and potential inflationary pressures.

In its latest projections (the "dot plot"), Fed officials still anticipate just one rate cut in 2026, with expectations for slightly stronger growth but persistent inflation concerns keeping aggressive easing off the table for now.

What This Means for Mortgage Rates

Mortgage rates don't move in perfect lockstep with the Fed's short-term rate. They're more closely tied to longer-term bond yields, like the 10-year Treasury, which reflect investor expectations for future inflation, growth, and Fed policy.

• With the Fed holding steady and signaling caution rather than imminent cuts, mortgage rates have remained in the mid-6% range recently.

• As of the latest data around the meeting (March 19, 2026), the average 30-year fixed mortgage rate sits around 6.22% to 6.33%, depending on the source (Freddie Mac reported 6.22%, while other surveys show slightly higher figures like 6.33% from Bankrate or 6.43% from Mortgage News Daily). This is up modestly from earlier in the month but still lower than a year ago.

The hold reinforces a "wait-and-see" stance, so don't expect sharp drops in mortgage rates soon. If inflation stays sticky or geopolitical risks push bond yields higher, rates could edge up further or stay volatile. On the flip side, any signs of cooling inflation or economic softening could open the door to that projected cut later in the year, potentially easing borrowing costs.

For homebuyers and refinancers in areas like Florida, this environment means planning around rates in the low-to-mid 6% range for now. Locking in a rate soon could make sense if you're ready to move, but shopping lenders remains key as individual offers vary.

Overall, the Fed's steady hand buys time for more data to come in; keeping things stable in the short term but leaving the door cracked for potential relief down the road. Stay tuned to upcoming economic reports for the next clues.

Getting Better.

Getting better…

Navigating Opportunities in the 2026 Real Estate Landscape: A Balanced Perspective

Navigating Opportunities in the 2026 Real Estate Landscape: A Balanced Perspective

As we step into 2026, the real estate market appears poised for a subtle yet significant shift—what some experts are calling a "great housing reset." After years of volatility driven by pandemic-era disruptions, inflationary pressures, and fluctuating interest rates, the coming year offers a canvas of opportunities for investors, buyers, and developers alike. Drawing from recent forecasts and analyses, this post explores potential avenues for growth and innovation in both residential and commercial sectors. It's fascinating to consider how these trends, grounded in economic data and expert insights, could reshape our built environment in ways that feel both predictable and refreshingly human.

Residential Real Estate: Modest Growth Amid Improving Affordability

In the residential arena, 2026 is expected to bring a steadier market, with affordability inching forward as wage growth begins to outpace home price appreciation for the first time since the Great Recession. This dynamic presents intriguing opportunities for first-time buyers and investors who have been sidelined by high costs. Median existing-home prices are projected to rise modestly by about 2.2%, reflecting a balanced supply-demand equation rather than the frenzied escalations of prior years. Empirical evidence from market forecasts suggests that monthly housing payments could decrease by around 1.3%, dropping the share of income devoted to mortgages below 30%—a threshold not seen since 2022.

One particularly promising area lies in regional variations, where micro-markets could yield outsized returns. For instance, locales like Baton Rouge, Louisiana, and Grand Rapids, Michigan, are anticipated to see sales growth of 7.1% and 6.9%, respectively, alongside healthy price appreciation in places like Hartford, Connecticut (up 9.5%). Conversely, cooling markets in the South, such as Nashville and Austin, might offer bargains for savvy investors willing to navigate higher insurance costs and post-disaster inventories. It's worth noting that move-in-ready homes—fully renovated and even furnished— are likely to command premiums, sparking bidding wars in a landscape where renovation costs continue to climb. For those with a long-term view, converting unsold properties into rentals could capitalize on softening rent growth in oversupplied regions like Las Vegas and Atlanta, where rents may decline by 1%.

Moreover, the rise of multigenerational living arrangements opens doors for developers specializing in adaptable homes with extended family suites. As younger generations grapple with affordability, sharing equity through innovative agreements—think "prenups" for co-ownership—could become more commonplace, fostering opportunities in niche financing and legal services tailored to these setups.

Commercial Real Estate: Sector-Specific Revivals and Adaptations

Shifting to commercial real estate, 2026 holds potential for recovery in key segments, albeit tempered by macroeconomic factors like tariffs and consumer spending patterns. Office demand is set to continue its rebound, driven by hybrid work models that prioritize high-quality, amenity-rich spaces. This trend could benefit investors in urban cores or suburban hubs where employers seek to lure talent back with collaborative environments. Similarly, industrial real estate may see redefined demand due to new tariffs, prompting reshoring of manufacturing and increased need for warehousing near domestic ports and supply chains.

Retail, influenced by a "K-shaped" consumer economy—where high-income shoppers thrive while others retrench—offers opportunities in experiential and value-oriented spaces. Think mixed-use developments that blend shopping with entertainment, or adaptive reuse of vacant big-box stores into community hubs. Analysis indicates that early indicators of economic softening could accelerate these adaptations, rewarding forward-thinking developers who anticipate shifts in spending behavior.

Emerging Trends: Technology, Sustainability, and Policy Influences

Beyond traditional sectors, 2026's real estate opportunities are amplified by technological and environmental imperatives. Artificial intelligence is poised to transform the industry, not by displacing human agents but by enhancing efficiency— from precise pricing models that account for renovation quality and views to streamlined lease processes. For entrepreneurs, investing in AI-driven platforms could yield dividends, particularly in home search tools that demystify risks and tradeoffs for buyers.

Sustainability emerges as another fertile ground, with climate resilience features like flood mitigation and energy backups becoming decisive factors in buyer preferences, especially in vulnerable areas such as Florida and wildfire-prone California. Hyperlocal climate migration within metros—relocating to less risky neighborhoods—could drive demand for resilient retrofits, creating niches for specialized contractors and insurers.

Finally, policy interventions, including YIMBY (Yes In My Backyard) zoning reforms and incentives for manufactured housing, signal long-term potential for addressing supply shortages. While full relief may take years, early movers in affordable housing development could position themselves advantageously as governments push for increased inventory.

Concluding Thoughts: A Cautiously Optimistic Horizon

In sum, the 2026 real estate market, while not explosive, offers a mosaic of opportunities rooted in stabilization and innovation. Whether through targeted residential investments, commercial revitalizations, or embracing tech and green trends, stakeholders who approach the landscape with data-informed agility stand to benefit. Of course, uncertainties like labor market weakness and persistent inflation remind us that real estate remains as much an art as a science—human decisions, after all, drive the numbers. As always, consulting local experts and diversifying strategies will be key to navigating this evolving terrain. What excites me most is the potential for these changes to make housing more accessible and sustainable, ultimately benefiting communities in tangible ways.

Trump and Venezuela. The Real Reason the News Missed.

The biggest economic boom in American history just started.

Here's everything you need to know:

Trump captured Venezuela's communist president and seized $17.3 trillion in oil reserves.

Venezuela has 303 billion barrels of crude oil - which the US now controls.
At $57/barrel, that's $17.3T in value. Even selling at half-market rate?

$8.7 trillion. Almost a third of the National debt — secured in 3 hours.

But this was more than securing oil, ending drugs, or stopping terrorism.
It was about protecting the US dollar as the world's reserve currency.

In 1974, Kissinger made a deal with Saudi Arabia: "all oil sold globally must be in US dollars." China was hours away from ending that.

China was on the verge of making the Yuan the new world currency:
→ Built cips (alternative to SWIFT and onboarded 4,800 banks)
→ BRICS was designed to bypass the US Dollar
→ Russia secretly sold oil in China and even met with Maduro the same day Trump acted.

300b+ barrels of crude oil would've been the final piece...

In one move, America just secured:
→ the largest oil reserves on Earth
→ fuel for the $10T AI + EV boom
→ energy dominance over China

All while ending the nightmare Venezuelans have lived under for years.

This may have been one of the biggest power moves in world history.

…plus… it puts others in the region on notice. “You may talk tough, but we just snatched the President with the biggest army out of his bed, with his wife, in the middle of the night, (without a scratch on our side), in under 7 minutes. If we want to get you, we’ll get you”.

Happy New Year

So…. it has been a really, really, really difficult year. But we have made so much progress and so many new things are ready to launch. I know that the whole “New Year, New Me” thing is trite and overdone, and doesn’t really apply to business anyway. But I will say this… we have a plan, and I think you are going to be pleasantly surprised.

The Fed Lowered Rates Why Did Mortgage Rates Go UP?

I’ve Mentioned This Before, and I’m Saying It Again: Don’t Keep Pushing for More Fed Rate Cuts If You’re Hoping for Lower Mortgage Rates.

Here’s a clear explanation to share with your clients:

1. Fed rate cuts can spark concerns in the markets about potential inflation picking up again.

2. That worry often leads to higher inflation expectations baked into bond yields—which essentially pushes longer-term rates upward.

So, what should the mortgage and housing sector actually want from the Fed to help bring mortgage rates down?

It’s straightforward: Maintain a mildly restrictive policy stance a bit longer, until there’s undeniable evidence of steady, sustainable progress toward the 2% inflation goal, silencing the remaining inflation concerns.

We don’t have to hit exactly 2% by next year; we simply need services and goods prices to keep easing gradually toward around 2.4% or so in the coming 6-9 months.

Feel free to pass this along to your borrowers when they call today or tomorrow wondering why mortgage rates didn’t drop after yesterday’s Fed move. Hope this is useful—let me know your take!

Fannie Mae Just Eliminated the 620 FICO Minimum: What It Really Means for Homebuyers and the Mortgage Industry

Fannie Mae Just Eliminated the 620 FICO Minimum: What It Really Means for Homebuyers and the Mortgage Industry

For more than two decades, a single number has stood like a brick wall between millions of Americans and conventional homeownership: 620.

If your FICO score was 619 or lower, Desktop Underwriter—the automated underwriting engine used for roughly 60% of all conforming mortgages—wouldn’t even let you in the door. No exceptions, no appeals, no matter how much cash you had in the bank or how low your debt-to-income ratio was.

That wall comes down this Saturday, November 16, 2025.

In Selling Guide update SEL-2025-09 and Desktop Underwriter Version 12.0, Fannie Mae is officially removing the 620 minimum representative credit score requirement for all new loan casefiles. The change is live for any file created on or after this weekend.

What Actually Changed?

Before November 16:

• Single borrower: minimum representative FICO = 620

• Multiple borrowers: average median FICO = 620

• Below those thresholds → automatic “Refer” or “ineligible” in DU

After November 16:

• No minimum score threshold in DU for eligibility

• DU will rely on its full trended credit data, cash-flow analytics, and 150+ risk factors

• Third-party credit scores are still required for delivery, but they no longer act as a hard gate

In plain English: Desktop Underwriter will finally look at the whole borrower instead of rejecting them at the front door because of three digits.

Who Wins the Most?

1. Thin-credit borrowers Recent immigrants, young professionals, and anyone who avoids credit cards now have a real shot at conventional financing.

2. Self-employed and 1099 workers Gig-economy borrowers often have excellent cash flow but lumpy credit profiles. DU’s new logic can finally see the reserves and bank-statement patterns that manual underwriters have been approving for years.

3. “Near-miss” recovery stories Someone who had a medical collection in 2022, paid it off, but still sits at 615 because of utilization—previously locked out. Now they’re in play if everything else is strong.

4. Rural and underserved markets FHFA data shows persistent 580–619 score bands in many LMI census tracts. This change directly supports the Biden-era (and continued Trump-era) push for equitable access.

The Fine Print Nobody Should Ignore

This is not a free-for-all. Three big guardrails remain:

1. Lender overlays Most banks and IMBs will still demand 620 or higher for at least the next 6–12 months. Overlay removal lags behind guideline changes—always.

2. Mortgage insurance companies Arch MI, Essent, MGIC, Radian, and Enact have their own rules. Current MI guidelines typically start at 620 for standard coverage and 600 for some charter programs. Until the PMI industry updates rate cards (likely Q1–Q2 2026), loans under 620 will still face limited MI options or higher LLPAs.

3. Delivery requirements unchanged Fannie Mae still requires a valid tri-merge credit report and at least one score per borrower. “No score” or “invalid score” loans remain ineligible.

Timeline Recap

• November 16, 2025 – DU 12.0 goes live

• Existing casefiles locked before Nov 16 keep old rules

• New submissions or re-submissions after Nov 16 get the new logic

• Expect lender bulletins and updated overlay sheets through December

What Should Borrowers and Loan Officers Do Right Now?

1. Pull fresh tri-merge reports on every 580–619 borrower in your pipeline

2. Re-run DU on any file that was previously “Refer with Caution” solely due to score

3. Document compensating factors aggressively—12 months reserves, 401(k) balances, low DTI, rental history

4. Shop lenders—early adopters who drop overlays first will win the volume war in 2026

The Bigger Picture

Freddie Mac removed their 620 floor in Loan Product Advisor 18 months ago. Fannie Mae’s move finally creates parity across the GSEs. Combined, they purchase or guarantee roughly $1.2 trillion in new mortgages annually.

FHFA Director Bill Pulte called it “the most significant credit-policy liberalization in a generation—without increasing taxpayer risk.” Early internal testing showed less than 1% increase in projected serious delinquency rates, thanks to DU’s machine-learning enhancements.

Bottom Line

The 620 minimum wasn’t a risk-based decision—it was a 1990s relic that survived through inertia. Starting this weekend, Fannie Mae joins the 21st century.

If you or someone you know has been sitting on the sideline because “I just need to get to 620,” the wait might finally be over.

Dust off those files. The barrier just moved.

Sources: Fannie Mae SEL-2025-09, Desktop Underwriter Version 12.0 Release Notes, FHFA public statements (November 2025).

Everything Changes.

It’s been awhile. Lots of personal things in life and that got me thinking about change.

And mortgage rates just dropped, and this changes everything.

Rates are now hovering around 6.17%, the lowest level we’ve seen in three years.

And the impact this has on payments and buying power is massive.

Here’s what that actually looks like:

At the start of the year, a $720,000 mortgage meant roughly a $4,800/month payment.

Today, that same loan costs about $475 less every month.

Or, if you keep the same budget, your buying power just jumped by nearly $100,000 going from a $900,000 home to about $1 million.

This is what people mean when they say “rates drive the market.”

A small movement in rates can completely shift what buyers can afford and how competitive they can be.

For buyers, this is your window. Lower rates mean more leverage, less competition (for now), and the ability to finally get into a home that might’ve been out of reach earlier this year. Waiting for rates to drop further could mean missing the moment. Once the market catches up, prices and competition will follow.

For current homeowners, this is an opportunity to re-evaluate your financial position. Whether it’s a refinance to free up cash flow, shorten your loan term, or tap equity for other goals... a drop like this opens new doors to build wealth and stability.

And for agents, this is your time to re-engage your pipeline. Every buyer who pressed pause earlier this year now has more buying power. Every listing conversation just got easier. Use this data to educate your clients, because the professionals who lead with facts win the trust and the business.

Rates are the heartbeat of the housing market and right now, the pulse is quickening.

Less than a 1% drop can mean the difference between waiting and winning.

Don’t wait for “perfect timing.” The best opportunities are the ones you recognize before everyone else does.

Not Another 2008... But An Opportunity.

This map highlights more than 3,600 properties now with negative equity, and the pattern isn't random with clusters forming around the state.

Miami-Ft. Lauderdale-Palm Beach (my home): Insurance and taxes are eroding values faster than expected.

Naples-Cape Coral: Investor heavy zones hit by recent price corrections and rising carrying costs.

Sarasota-Bradenton: Short-term rental demand is cooling.

Orlando-Daytona Corridor: Oversupply is meeting slower demand.

Jacksonville-Palm Coast: Delinquencies are climbing alongside higher DTI ratios.

This IS NOT another 2008, but it's a signal. Equity cushions are thinning and homeowners who were safe 6 months ago might be slipping into need-to-sell territory.

If you are an agent or an investor: Watch these hotspots closely. They are likely to generate a wave of distressed listings and good buying opportunities.