For the first time in awhile, home prices are on the edge of going negative year-over-year.

What’s happening?

• Price-per-square-foot (one of the market’s best leading indicators) is falling faster than usual this summer.

• Inventory has finally caught up to demand, tipping the balance we haven’t seen since before the pandemic.

• Most headlines are still reporting “record prices.”

That gap between reality and the headlines matters. In the next 2–4 weeks, the story will flip to “price drops”, and when it does, buyer and seller psychology will shift overnight.

For buyers: this is rare leverage. More options. More time to decide. More negotiating power.

Don’t expect a crash, but mild price declines are already here.

Move strategically now, and you may avoid the competition that will return quickly if rates dip closer to 6%.

For sellers: waiting could backfire.

By the time you hear “prices are dropping” on the news, it may already be too late to price ahead of the curve.

Aggressive pricing, creative incentives, and strong marketing will separate homes that move from those that sit.

The “record high prices” narrative is ending. The market rewards those who act early, not those who wait for last quarter’s headlines to catch up.